Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Off Grid: How to do solar/wind

How to do solar/wind

I've always looked at ways to reduce our cargo when going out to the land.  A big issue is needing a generator with enough fuel.    The noise is also a problem during hunting seasons.  For that reason, I learned about solar and wind.  I will explain the concept of building a system to give you an idea of what's involved and cost.  You should consult with a professional about installing a solar/wind system.

Solar?  Wind?  Battery?  How much power do we need?   This requires some knowledge of electricity and basic math.  I would need to power the RV that is on our hunting land.  My average usage is about 2A (amp) with spikes up to 5A while running the air conditioner.   

It's best to know your actual power needs which can be measured in many ways.  My generator displays the usage but it could also be done with hand held meters.  You can also look at the specifications on the appliances you need to run.   Everything lists the power requirements from the manufacturer.  Your power consumption is the single most important information you need when designing a system.   If you are not familiar with electricity then you should consult with a professional.

To make the calculations we have to put everything in the same terms.  It is best to use watts as the common term.    Watts (w) can be calculated by multiplying the volts (v) with the amps (a).  When the RV is connected to a generator or utility it uses 120V AC with a max of 30A.  For this example, I will use the numbers for the max of the RV which is 30A.

The RV has a maximum of 3,600w. (120 x 30)   Kilo-watt hours (kwh) is just the amount of power used over time.  If I used 3,600w every hour then my consumption would be 3.6 kwh.   This is probably more what you use in your home.

Solar/wind come in many voltage configurations 12v, 24v, and 48v.  (There could be others but there aren't common and I haven't see such kits available.)   How do you know which you should use?     It's mainly a question of the size of wire you use.    Wire must be of a certain size to handle the amps.   Electricity traveling through a wire generates heat.  An undersized wire will melt or catch fire if the rating is exceeded.  The reason why fuses and breakers are used in circuits is to prevent wires from exceeding their limits.


A 12V system would have 300A.     This is calculated by the Watts divided by the volts.   (3600 / 12 = 300)    In addition to wire size, your batteries and charge controller must be rated for the amps.   300 is too big.   Increasing the volts will reduce the amps.   In this case, I would select a 48V system.   (3600w / 48v = 75a).      

At 75a, I will need 3 gauge wire to connect the system.   Check the specifications on batteries and controller for their max.   We can also put in fuses/circuit breakers for 75A.    The higher voltage systems are usually more expensive.

Batteries

The sun doesn't always shine nor does the wind always blow.    We need batteries to keep the lights on during times when power can't be generated.    First, we must decide how capacity we need.     Batteries are rated by voltage and amp hours (ah).   If you had a single 100ah 48V battery then you have 4,800W (100 * 48)    This means that one battery would discharge in l hour 20 minutes from the 3600w consumption.     

Keep in mind, that I'm describing the capacity and not a real world application.     First, the battery would need to be able to handle a constant 75a draw and batteries can't be drained completely.    For example, some lithium batteries can only use 50% of their capacity.    It depends on the type of battery you're using.   You must pay close attention to the specifications of the batteries.   The best type of battery is beyond the scope of what I want to cover here.

If you had 10 batteries (48v 100ah) then they will provide about 13 hours running capacity.

48 x 100 = 48,000

48,000 / 3,600 = 13.33

If your batteries can be drained by 50% then your usable capacity is 24,000w or 6.67 hours at maximum load.    If you can't find batteries that can handle a 50% drain then you will adjust the number of batteries to compensate.

If you can't find a 48v battery then you can buy two 24v batteries and wire in series.   This means the negative post of one battery is connected to the positive of the next battery (then connected to the controller).    This increases the voltage of the battery but keeps the capacity the same.  Two 24v 100ah batteries wired in series will produce 48v at 100ah.

You can increase the capacity by wiring batteries in parallel.   This means the positive post is wired to the positive of the next battery.     Two 48v 100ah batteries wired in parallel will produce 48v at 200ah.

A more detailed explanation can be found here.  Series Vs Parallel https://lithiumhub.com/series-vs-parallel/

Other Considerations

Everything connected to your circuit will consume power.    All wires have power loss due to resistance (resulting in heat).   All inverters, transformers, and controllers will consume power.  All the usage should be considered in your calculations.  There are no freebies.

Recharge

We must recharge once the batteries are drained.    If we have a total capacity of 24,000 watts then the watts of the power source will determine how long it takes to recharge the battery bank.    The voltage should match your system.  We would need a source that outputs 48v.    

The charging is handled by a controller.    The controller must match your voltage and amps.   This is usually expressed as watts with ranges for the volts and amps.   The controller also must be compatible with the type of batteries you are using.    The type of output is also important.   I need 120v to power my RV.   However, if I want to provide power to the water well then I need two phase 240v.

Wind

Wind power is probably the most expensive and least reliable.   It requires a turbine and compatible controller. They will be rated in volts and watts.   An 800W 48v turbine will take 30 hours to completely recharge your battery bank.  (24000 / 800 = 30)  Wind speeds vary based on altitude with the slower speeds being at the surface.   

Turbines have wind speed operating ranges.   There's a minimum, max generation, and safe operating speeds. The 800w unit needs 6mph to generate some power but 9mph to make the full 800w.  High wind could damage the turbine above 12mph.  Most turbines have an automatic shutdown when the wind is not with an acceptable range.  Your local conditions must be taken into account.  A turbine will be useless if you average is 3 mph.

The minimum height needed is at least above any trees.   At my location, the minimum is 30 feet tall above the tree canopy. You can find the average wind in your area on weather maps (eg: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov) or hand held measuring devices.   I would need the turbine to be at least 50 ft above the ground get the minimum (6 mph) in my area.   I would need to go a high as 100ft to regularly get the full 9 mph needed.    If you live in a high altitude then you may need to go higher for faster wind because air density is a factor.

The higher the tower is, the harder it will be to perform regular maintenance like greasing and replacing worn parts.  A cheap turbine may require more maintenance and may not produce enough power for your needs.  If freezing rain is an issue in your area the a turbine maybe unusable for days until it thaws.

The wind will not be constant even at the optimal height for a location.    You may only get 2 hours a day of usable wind.  For most people, wind power impractical.

Solar

Solar panels are cheaper and easier to maintain when compared to wind.   The only requirement is a clear sky view.  The amount of power they generate is dependent on the angle to the sun which first means pointing in the direction of the equator.   (northern hemisphere would point south)

The panels should be at the optimum angle to the horizon.   Sites like https://footprinthero.com/solar-panel-tilt-angle-calculator provide a calculator based on your location.  The angle changes with the season but you can set your panels at a median.   Mounts that automatically adjust the angel are available.   They follow the sun to maintain the best angel. They are expensive and consume power.   In my opinion, they aren't worth any extra power you might get.

Panels don't generate every minute the sun is out.  Cloud cover, sun setting, and sun rising will change the power generation.  The usable hours are easy to determine. There are many websites that will show the peak sun hours.   The amount of hours will be lower the farther away from the equator you are.  This represents the average amount of usable sun per day. This is just a guide.  Lets assume that it's 5 for the example.

This means a 200w panel (48v) will generate a maximum of 1000w per day.  (200 * 5 = 1000)    It would take 24 days to charge your batteries with one panel.    24000 / 1000 = 24       1,000 is the total watts generated per panel per day.    If you wanted to recharge the battery bank in a single day then you would need 24 panels.   This doesn't include any power consumption while your batteries are charging.    

The watts vary by panel.  Panels are no different than batteries and can be wired in series or parallel to achieve the voltage of your system.  The point to remember is that if you wire in series to increase the voltage then you need more panels for amps. It's possible to buy panels with the correct voltage.   They achieve it my internal wiring.

Panels need to be regularly cleaned. Dirt or leaves will reduce the efficiency.  Panels are limited to how much sun they can convert to electricity.  This is due to the materials use described by the Shockley–Queisser limit.   The efficiency limit is about 33.7% for most panels currently available.  This means only 33% of the sun's energy is converted to electricity.   The best panels (and most expensive) available are about 21% efficient. There are some panels available that claim higher levels.   They achieve this by multiple layers not improvements on the cell. 

Panel will lose efficiency each year (about .5%) which quickly adds up since the efficiency is low to start with.  You can expect the panels to last at least 15 years before needing to be replaced.   This will vary depending on the quality of the panels.

In the real world

In the example, I used the max 3,600w for the calculations.   This might be typical usage for a house connected to the utility grid. I expect the usage to be less in an off gird application.  The RV can use propane for most of the appliances and can operate on 12v.  120v would be nice to charge the phone or satellite. 

In the beginning, I measured my average need as 2a.  I would need 240w per hour which means the battery bank in the example will last a little over 4 days. 8 panels could charge the battery bank in about 5 days while still using 240w during 12 hours in day.

The good news is that at 240w system has a max of 20a at 12v which means you could use a 12v system and save money.

Thursday, December 14, 2023

Land: The road to no where

 Land: The road to no where

Road to no where

We didn't get to work on the project until mid-July due to the weather.  We needed a week where there would be no chance of rain.  It was a wet spring.  By July, we had to go rain or not if we wanted to make the hunting season.  Once again, Warren-Cat delivered a few machines to make the work easier.   We rented a 320 Excavator and 299 skid steer with tree sheers and a grapple.

equipment

The primary goal was to expand the area around the RV and the food plot.  Secondly, we wanted to create a new road, two ponds, and a second food plot.   We also scheduled a driller for a water well and gravel delivery to improve the road.  

The 320 makes it very easy to clear off land.  I wish someone had told me this when we started this project.     The 320 is big enough to rip most trees out by force alone.   It can simply knock over bigger trees.    For big trees, I held the arm at 90 degrees then pushed the bucket at 10 ft up the tree.   If the machine rocks without moving the tree then I back up and dig around the base.    Taking a full bucket on three sides will destroy the roots enough to tip the tree on the next attempt.   The thumb makes it easy to stack the tree logs out of the way.   This solved the problem of a dozer which can only push them down from about 4 feet high.  The low height reduces the leverage you have against the tree.  The dozer is not able to knock down larger trees.  Furthermore, the trees would get in the way once they fell preventing further work.   This means every few hours I would have to cut up the trees and move them out of the way.    Since the dozer can't move trees it can become a danger when the trees get hung up in the canopy.    

If you need to clear many trees then the 320 excavator is definitely the way to go.

New Road

I was able to create half a mile of new road 20 feet wide through a thick forest in about 8 hours.  At some point, I will need to rent the dozer again since the excavator is not good at leveling the ground.   The road is clear but it is rough to travel over even for the Jeep.    


I doubled the size of the food plot in a couple hours.  It took less time than the road because the skid steer could help clear.   The excavator didn't have to travel as much as it did for the road.    It could stay along the tree line removing trees within reach and set them behind me.   


Grapple

The skid steer could not travel over the new road.   The rocky ground and pits from downed trees made it unsafe for the short track base of the skid steer.   Unfortunately, the skid steer was down for a couple days due to the track slipping off and waiting for the service technician.

Skidsteer

It was later determined that the track and grease regulator were worn out.   This caused slack in the track that could not be tightened despite several attempts to do so. 

The bad luck continued when the excavator blew a seal on the thumb hydraulics.   It produced a nice flower pattern when the thumb was used.  It was before the cut off valve so it leaked constantly and we lost nearly two gallons of hydraulic fluid while moving it out of the deep forest.

Leaking

By Friday we had completed most of the task but both machines now had mechanical issues.  The equipment trouble prevented us from doing the gravel.   The company was not happy when I called to cancel delivery.    The scheduled delivery was for 6 truck loads and without the equipment we wouldn't be able to move it.    We waited two days for parts and the technician to return. There was only one full day left by the time the equipment was working again.   We will have to try to do the gravel again next year.

Clearly, we planned to do too much for one week.   We had delays due to equipment repairs and had to go every couple of days generator fuel.   Every technician or delivery required us to meet them in town and lead them to the site.   Every trip takes at least 2 hours round trip.   


Initially, the drillers were not confident we could reach water since we're on top of a mountain.  I have never seen a well being drilled before.   First, they drill 20 feet down with a large bit using air to push the material out of the hole.    Once they reach the end of the line, the drill is pulled up and a large PVC pipe is dropped in the hole.     They pour concrete in to seal around where the pipe contacts the ground.   Then a smaller bit is installed and they resume drilling.     They switch to water to push the material out of the hole instead of air.     

We agreed to drill up to 200 feet in search of water.   With time running out, we hit water at 160 feet.    He said it was flowing at about 1.5 gallons per minute.    They determine this by how much the water moves when the drilling is paused to add a new pipe. 

This probably wouldn't be enough for a full time residence but we don't plan to live out here.     He finished drilling at 180 feet which would give us about 230 gallons of water before the well is dry.  The well casing is just PVC pipe with holes cut to allow surrounding water to fill in the pipe.   The pump sits 10 feet from the bottom to avoid debris only connected by the electric wires and the water line.   

Most of the well is in black shale. The water comes out milky, but the test shows there's no bacteria or heavy metals.   I'm sure the water will taste as bad as it smells but it appears to be safe to drink.   We just needed water for the toilet and showers.  We bring bottled water in for drinking and cooking.  At some point, we will need water for concrete mixing too.  The driller said the water should clear up over time and to run it dry as often as possible.

 

We left a 275 gallon tote we've been using to bring water in. I added a little plumbing and wired a breaker with a generator connection.    The plan will be to power the pump (240v) and fill the tote then put in water conditioner to prevent mold/bacteria.   The 12v RV pump will be used to draw on the tote.    The 275 gallons should last several weeks which means we won't need to bring the generator with us on every trip.    The best thing is we will no longer have to transport hundreds of pounds of water every trip.


My son brought the beverages.  After the long day, we would gather around the campfire.  Drinking beer with good company.   My hope was always that this land would be a place we could spend quality time with friends and family.   


Maybe I should have asked them if they liked camping first?

 

Monday, June 5, 2023

What is woke?

Woke "Identity politics": A political movement where people create a new personal identity based on physical traits like race and/or gender. The Identity can also include imaginary traits such as animals and mythical creatures. The most important aspect of the individual is how they identify. The identity is only known to the individual via their state of mind therefor transitions between identities is seamless but hidden from others. (Trans-gender, Trans-race, trans-species, trans-age) This lead to the use of custom Pronouns in English (and Spanish) and appearance changes, based on extreme stereotypes, to show the identity to the world. People are expected to asked for identities and those identities followed without mistakes. Incorrect assumptions are seen as a direct attack. All attacks on the identity are an attack on the person and group thus violence. (Transphobia/homophobia) This lead to the need for trigger warnings and safe spaces in the early movement. Violence has become more common as more will verbally or physically attack over bad guesses or innocent mistakes. The movement grew out of identity feminist in the early 2000s as other identities beyond gender were accepted. Feminist and Woke both use "patriarchy" (proletariat) in their ideology. The root ideology is based on a modernized version of Marxism where class struggle is replaced with gender struggle (feminism) and identity struggle (woke). Furthermore, the identity follow a hierarchy where different degrees of "oppression" for each class (identity) is observed. This hierarchy is not well defined and constantly changes although a given individual's identity is usually the top (most oppressed). However, heterosexual white females then heterosexual white males are the commonly least oppressed.

Thursday, June 16, 2022

Land: Clearing things up

We went back to the land at the beginning of June.  I rented a CAT D5 and 299 Skid Steer with a mulcher.  We arrived just before noon on Saturday. It was good to see the RV was still there in good shape.  The biggest issue was the water pump was singing it's death knell and a small bird had created a nest on top of the propane tank. I don't know what kind of bird it was.   They were small mostly brown in color.   I counted at least 3 nestlings.

 

The plan was to expand the RV area and food plot.  I also wanted to create a couple ponds and a new food plot on the west side.    We arrived just in time to meet the equipment delivery driver to lead him in.    There was a new locked gate just off the county road.  No one had cell service and turning around would be nearly impossible. Thankfully, the delivery guy was able to radio his boss and get the combination from the phone number written on the gate.

The number was for the operations manager of the gas company running the wells in the area.   He said the land owners on the north end of the road suffered large losses from thieves recently.   The gate was built to discourage random people from entering.   This is the first time we've heard of wide spread thefts. He said the oil company regularly has parts missing.   They run their equipment on solar panels because there's no electricity.   He said they tried to make the batteries and panels harder to steal but the thieves would just tear up more to get what they wanted.    They usually just accepted the occasional loss.    He said the road is technically owned by the oil company and if I catch someone trespassing to let him know and the oil company would file charges as well.   

He also said that a quarry company owns the land to our south and might provide access to the main highway.  I couldn't find a company that owned any land to the south.  The only one I know of is a Mike who owns the land to the north.  I've already talked to him and he doesn't know of any alternative routes.

I also discovered the Texans who bought a plot of land last year is an elderly gentleman named Chuck.    He was also using a lock on the gate.   I had a great conversation with Chuck. He said he has been staying the winter months there September till February.  He keeps an eye on things while he is there thus earned the nickname "sheriff".

The water was below the bridge which indicates it had not rained for several weeks although the roads showed there was a lot of rain since November.  The erosion channels were deeper and many new deep pot holes.

Some of the pot holes were very deep and I scraped the ground with the trailer jack.  The jack doesn't work anymore and will have to be replaced.   I think the biggest factor was there was 200 gallons of water in the back which caused the truck to ride low.  I hope the new gate will keep the four-wheelers out too.    They like to joy ride through the area ripping up the roads and drinking beer.    One of the worse spots on the road near a cattle guard was created this way.    A year ago we noticed new tracks where someone left deep ruts which the water now uses as a path eroding it deeper.  I doubt they got stuck there and the tracks were too narrow to be a truck.

We got to the well pad and unloaded the tractor.    We started moving equipment down to the RV when we encountered a deep erosion channel on our road.    It's the same spot that was there last year.  There are two major spots in the road we've had problems with.    One at the top of the road eroded a foot deep and wide.    It was bad enough I couldn't get the tractor over it let alone a truck and trailer.    We had to turn around and bring the dozer to correct the road again.     


The trouble spots were fixed last year when we rented the dozer, but it's not a simple case of the correcting the slope.     I believe when it rains hard enough to raise the water table there are two locations on the road that drain.    We have located several places all over the property located mostly in creeks where water seemingly comes out of rocks.   They run for weeks after a heavy rain and in the road it slowly erodes exposing the bed rock.

The first spot is just north of our property half way down a steep slope which drops elevation 20 FT through a couple benches.  The second is past the RV on a steep slope where the elevation drops over a hundred feet in a short distance.  

We have a few options which is to locate a new path further to the west or fill these spots with gravel.  The second erosion area can be avoided if we fix the alternate path created by the previous owner.    It turns before the trouble spot crossing a wet weather creek.    This area is mostly stone so it doesn't erode.    The problem is the creek bed is full of pits and sharp rocks.   This where we lost a tire the first trip as owners.  We tried to fill the holes with rocks from the area but a heavy rain had washed them away.  We need to fill the deep spots with concrete to make it easier on the tires.   We don't plan to bring the truck over this often, but we need at least one trip to remove the old camper and trash.

By the end of the first day, I fixed and widened the road.   It's now about 10 feet wide.   The gyroscope of the dozer was broken so I had to level everything manually.  This was a challenge since it's only the second time I've driven a dozer.  By the end of the night my son put rocks in a 5 feet circle and we settled in to enjoyed the night with beer and BBQ.

We were awaken by thunderstorms early in the morning.   It rained until after noon dumping a total of 2.5 inches.  The sky was clear the rest of the day which made the heat and humidity almost unbearable.  The ground is mostly clay and became a soup.  Thankfully, the road didn't wash out but there was a spot where run off was starting to erode again.  We waited until the afternoon to start work.    I was able to fix the run off area by putting a slope in the road.  It was difficult due to the slimy mud.    The biggest problem while it was wet is the ground cuts off like a slab of cold butter.    This made it impossible to level out the land with the dozer.  


We cleared some of the trees around the RV.   I pushed the trees over with the dozer then tried to fill the holes which didn't compact.  We had to get the chainsaw to cut up the down trees often then move the logs and brush to piles.   It was interesting the trees seem to collect rocks out of the soil and pull them close to the trunk.    Many of the trees had a large collection of stones of all sizes in their roots.

The hope was we would have enough sky to get a cell phone signal if we could clear a path from the RV to where the elevation begins to drop.   I was hopeful because my son was starting to get notifications around the RV.

At then end of the day we moved the trucks up to the well pad.  The forecast indicated rain the next day.   The amount of rain is always an uncertainty.   A forecast of "scattered light showers" could mean trace to heavy down pours.  The road looked solid after drying all day but the fresh soil had become like peanut butter.   There was a lot of slippage making four inch ruts but we managed to get to the top.

We didn't get much done due to a late start.   It was so wet that we couldn't even get a fire going.  Every stick of wood was soaked.  We went inside the RV and just watched a movie until bed time.

The next morning the same weather pattern repeated giving another inch of rain. The forecast expected the same every day until Friday.  It hadn't rained enough to get the creeks running but the constant showers would ensure the dirt would not dry out.

We were only able to work a couple hours each day.   What work could get done was slowed by the mud.  We decided to go home after a couple days even though we planned to stay the entire week.    The weather forecast had been accurate so far and there was no way we would use the forty hours equipment rental. CAT was willing to just charge for the eight hours we used instead of the forty hours we scheduled.


I got stuck on the way out on the main road.    There was a channel about a foot deep and six inches wide that one side slipped into.  I always assumed the possibility of getting stuck on the quarter mile leading down to our property but not on the main road.   It was almost inevitable because I was pulling the tractor grossing about 14K pounds and the oil company hasn't been maintaining the road since we bought the property.   I walked down to the dozer and used it to pull the truck out.   

The plan had been to improve the land with ponds and extra food plots then prepare for hunting.   We didn't get anything completed due to the rain.  It seems the biggest priority will be improvements to the road.   Ideally, we would come out for weekend get-a-ways and hunting.   A washed out road or getting stuck in mud would be difficult problem with the closest person being a forty minute drive.  The thought of having to walk that distance in freezing temperatures is not pleasant.  Usually, we bring the jeep with us thinking it would be able to get the truck out if there was a problem.    I want at least another option.   I scheduled to get a 16,000lbs winch with a new bumper installed on the truck next week which will allow the truck to pull itself out.  

I think the best option to improve the road is a layer of gravel. I estimate it will take 200 tons of gravel to fill in bad spots and cover the road to our property.   The road is a little over a quarter of mile (.27) from the well pad to the RV.   It's about ten feet wide and a depth of three inches.    This is over 3,500 cubic feet of gravel.    It would take 188 tons of gravel at 19 cubic feet per ton. 

The total price for the gravel will be around $7,000 including delivery. It also means we won't get the tree work done or be ready for hunting season this year.  We will have to make a trip out there before winter to prepare the RV and perhaps have a load of gravel delivered to fill in the bad areas.  It will be worth the delay for a little more peace of mind.


Monday, April 25, 2022

Socialism FAQ

Socialist FAQ

Social media full of socialist who repeat endless slogans about the topic.    However, they rarely understand the subject and resort to name calling and eventually blocking.

The means of production should be owed by the workers

What does this mean exactly?   You can create a corporation now and provide stock options to employees.  Many businesses already do this.  This is the company being owed by the employees.  Not all stocks are publicly sold on the stock exchange.

No one should have billions of dollars

You're talking about someone who owns publicly traded stock in a company.   These are not the same thing as cash.   The value of the stock changes every day and can drop drastically if the company is not making a profit.    If these people were to sell the majority of their shares it would crash the price of the stock and bankrupt the company. 

Everyone should pay their fair share in taxes

What is the total they need to pay a portion of?   The government is constantly spending more money so it's impossible to pay a share of a moving target.  The top income earners already pay a majority of the taxes according to IRS data.   The proper solution is for the government to reduce how much it spends.

My (True) Socialism has never been tried before

This is completely wrong as many forms of socialism have been tried ending in disasters.  What ever you think socialism is has more than likely been tried before.    Socialism is an old idea.  The leaders in Guyana and Ivory coast even tried an experience where Guyana adopted socialism and Ivory Coast adopted free market principles.      Socialism failed miserably.

The Nordic countries are a socialist success

The government of those countries have denied being socialist.    They don't have a minimum wage.  They have low corporate taxes and few business regulations.   They have more capitalism than the United States. At best, they were a welfare state in the 1970's nearly bankrupting the country and have reduced their welfare programs drastically since.

The poor are poorer; rich richer

Who is poor depends on how you measure it and the news media often manipulates the data to support their headlines.   The poverty line is based on the CPI which is constantly modified to hide the true inflation.   The current CPI would be double the reported percentage if using the 1980 calculation. In addition, the poverty level is different depending where you look.   A middle class person in California would be considered rich in Mississippi. 

According to IRS data the median income has increased over the years which indicates growth of wages.   

Trickle Down Economics

This is a political slogan invented by Democrats in the 1920's.   The treasurer wanted to lower taxes on the rich because they were hiding their money in tax shelters.  His reasoning was to increase investments by making it more profitable to invest their money in the economy instead of tax shelters.  His efforts failed and it was dismissed as "trickle down economics" because people failed to grasp how investment in the economy would benefit people.   According to Sowell, the number of those earning over a million per year were 206 before the tax hikes and 21 while the taxes were high at 76%.    207 reported high incomes after the taxes were lowered again.    This is why lowering taxes often increases tax revenue.

There's no economist who invented or advocates this theory.   Keynesian economics, although difference from what the namesake pushed, according to Friedman, is a better description of 'trickle down' which is pushed by both parties.    This theory says the government can spend massive amounts of money on special interest groups that will make it to the pockets of citizens eventually.   The modern version is "modern monetary theory" which suggest the government can spend without consequences.

We should return to the tax rate at 90% like in the 1950's

The effective tax rate paid was never 90%.   At the time the average tax rate was 35% according to IRS data.  The top tax rate was set at 90% but they also had a complicated tax code which allowed many deductions reducing the effective rate.

The rich just move their money to places that aren't taxed.   It's often the middle class who suffer the most because they aren't able to move their money to tax shelters.

We need equality 

Equality under the law is something everyone has in the United States and most Western countries.  This means everyone has the same starting position and is treated the same by the law.

We need Equity 

Equity, the equal distribution of resources is not possible.   Siblings from the same household don't end up with the same distribution.    The only way to attempt this is a powerful central government that forces people to have equal resources.   The way this works is two cattle ranchers start with the same number of cattle; say 10.   Over a year, one works hard and raises good quality herds and increases the number to 20.  The second rancher doesn't put any effort into the cattle and most are underweight plus two die.  The government comes in and takes 12 from the first rancher, keeps 4, sells the remaining 8 to rancher 3.


This is a work in progress and will be updated as I encounter more socialist on social media. Check back often.

Saturday, April 23, 2022

Half-Baked Survival Prepping

Half Baked Survival

Imagine a scenario where the government collapses or a nuclear attack.  The news would have you believe this will happen in the next few months. For whatever reason, the modern lifestyle falls apart. Many preppers sell kits and books claiming they will help you. There's endless websites, TV shows, and products available. These people are selling you dreams and products. Most people don't know what it takes to survive without local stores. You might be able to survive with freeze dried food for a couple of months but that's just an extended camping trip with your family not survival.

What most of these people are selling is a temporary solution to minor problems. A prepared "bug out" bag is great if there's a riot and you need to stay with grandma until order is restored. It works if you're avoiding a major weather events. You don't need a food supply for most of these events if you are just getting out of the affected area because most people can survive without food for several days. You will need more water than anything else.

It's important to understand what events you are preparing for and the length of time that might be needed to return to civilization. The chance of something happening that collapses society is unlikely. In most cases, staying in your home is probably the best option. What I will be discussing is things that are overlooked when survival means long term.

Travel

Many say you should avoid interstate highways because you could encounter bad people or traffic jams. Rest assured, you will encounter problems no matter what route you chose since we are talking about the end of civilization. Remember, thousands (or millions) of people are all trying to get out of the population center at the same time you are. The more extreme the event, the worse it will be. It's it's something like an incoming nuclear strike you can bet that everyone will be in a panicked rush to get out of the area.

A significant issue with back roads is they have fewer lanes and more traffic lights often through small towns. If the power is out then none of the traffic lights will be working and traffic congestion will be worse. Many will try alternative routes when the main highways are congested for any reason. These factors will also increase the likelihood of traffic collisions.

Off road paths such as power line and pipeline service corridors are probably the worse route. These are unknown areas and usually not maintained.  There could be ditches washed out from the last storm or creeks that run through them. There maybe downed trees or other debris and the vegetation could conceal obstacles. Rocks can easily ruin a tire. Even in the best circumstances, you will have to go slow through the area which will cost time and extra fuel. If you have a long distance to travel this could add days to get anywhere. Of course, you will need an off-road vehicle to even make the attempt but you will have the constant danger of getting stuck and avoiding obstacles.

The best option is to plan a route that will get you to your destination as quick as possible. You should be familiar with alternative routes along the entire way.

Land

You need to have a destination in mind before you grab that bag and head out You probably want to avoid camping sites with people you don't know. Do they want to help or want what you have? Are they part of the new secret police? Are they contaminated with radioactive fall-out? Did they bring their own supplies? The park could be full before the event occurs.

You need to prepare. You can't build or store things on public land. You can't run to the nearest wildlife preserve to start a colony over night. This means you will need land some where out in a rural area. The best place would be isolated but near a town where you can get supplies and information. You can't leave the city in a hurry with all your supplies.  Gathering and packing everything takes time better spent avoiding the rush out of the city.

Having land of your own will allow you to stockpile items and prepare like clearing trees and building a shelter. You need planning, supplies, and time to prepare. It's a familiar location where you know what's around and what travel conditions are like.

Shelter

A tent isn't going to work long term especially in poor weather. A tent lacks insulation and you can't build a fire inside. If it's damaged you probably won't have the materials needed to repair it. Most people will die from exposure. Sleeping on the bare ground is a good way to get hypothermia. You need a reliable shelter from the elements and storage. Remember, the more things you bring will require more space. If you want to use electronics you will need a good supply of batteries which take a lot of space. You should at least have a RV but a permanent cabin is better.  

Sanitation

Where do you relieve yourself without running water and a toilet? What will you use for toilet paper? You can't just use the local stream or pond because that will contaminate a potential water supply. You can just leave it outside in the open especially in groups of people since it will attract pest and spread disease. You can go for long period without taking a shower but how to handle waste will be a daily problem.

What about trash? You can burn a lot of it like most rural houses do sending smoke signals to your neighbors. You will still have issues with the toxic burnt left overs and metals/glass. This creates hazards for you and equipment.  Food waste will attract the local wild life and pest.

Vehicles

Vehicles are dead weight beyond getting out of the city. Forget what you saw in the Walking Dead where all vehicle will start with a little cursing after sitting for months and years. They rely on fuel. Fuel may not be available due to supply issues. You may not be able to afford it if it is available. The best case is you will have to go to a population center to buy fuel which is bad If you are trying to avoid the new government overlords or zombies. Fuel has a shelf life especially when it has ethanol in it.  Fuel pulls moisture from the air and gets contaminated without a stabilizer. This is usually about a year assuming it's in a good container.

The vehicle won't be worth anything if it breaks and you don't know how to work on it. Spare parts probably won't be available anyway.  Weather degrades the battery and it's worthless without a way to charge or replace it. Don't count on it starting if it has been sitting a couple of months or more. The part that will definitely wear out is the tires. There also the risk of nails or other road hazards. The best tires will also suffer from weathering. Off road travel is very demanding to tires especially road tires.

It doesn't matter what year you have. It's true modern cars have more electronics but they will run without most of them. Even the emission controls will not stop the vehicle from running. There's only a few sensors that will prevent the engine from running. The onstar can be disconnected if you are worried about being tracked. The only way to avoid sensitive electronics is to find a carburetor vehicle made before 1990. Probably from the first half of the 1980's or earlier.

The biggest problem is always going to be spare parts. If parts aren't available then oil and other fluids won't be available. Engine oil needs to be replaced at regular intervals otherwise the engine will wear out quicker and potentially suffer a failure.

Learn how to work on engines. Doing most repair work on vehicles is easy to learn. You also need a tire repair kit to patch tires. You must realize that any vehicle has an expiration date. Don't bet your survival on them.

Electricity

Forget about electronics for your survival.  Electronic require batteries and a power source. Disposable batteries are a limited resource and lose their charge over time. Rechargeable batteries need a power source and wear out fast. You can have an off grid system using solar/wind. These are dependent on the weather and provide limited amounts of power. They usually have deep cycle batteries that are not commonly found and will wear out. A severe storm could damage the solar panels and wind turbines. Wind turbines need lubrication.

Generators are out of the question too since they rely on fuel. Of course, It's possible to make diesel fuel from plastic and the engines are simple compared to a vehicle. Diesel generators are 4x more expensive than gas versions. Generators will also wear out. Most generators need an oil change after every 100 hours of use.  They are also noisy which will broadcast your position to the hungry masses and scare away local wildlife you need for food.

You will have to live without a mechanical machines and electronics.  These all have expiration dates without spare parts and supplies. What "off grid" people don't tell you is they still depend on a local store for supplies and are usually sponsored. This is an easy thing to test in your back yard. Most hunters find this out quickly when they try to make a hunting cabin.

Water

Water is going to be a biggest necessity from the start. You've been spoiled by a life of drinking clean tap water. There are a lot of things in creeks, lakes, and ponds that will make you sick. Maybe even kill you or make you wish for that sweet release. Many diseases and sickness are water borne.  Did someone dump sewer in upstream? Did run off water from your waste or trash burning contaminate the water?

This was a major problem for humans even for those who drank natural sources all their life. Store bought filters or survival straws are short term solutions because they wear out and must be replaced.

Food

You will need long term food supplies. A garden needs seeds, water, time, land, and fertilizer. Working the land by hand will be very difficult unless you have animals available that can work the plow.  Growing your own food requires a lot of land because you need an abundance of food for now and enough to last the winter. The more people you have, the more food you will have to grow. If you have animals then you will need even more food. I've read some say you need at least 800 square feet per person.

It's unlikely that you will find enough forage in a forest to keep you fed since you're competing against wildlife. It's dangerous to eat wild plants or mushrooms unless you know what you're looking for. This means you will need to grow or hunt for the majority of your calories. 

First, you will need a large stash of seeds. Beware of cheap seed kits from "survival" companies that have a low germination rate. You will need a large supply because bad things will happen. You might have crop failure due to weather, pest, or wildlife. Most plants you like to eat are also favorites of the local deer.

Water will probably be limited which means you will have to rely on rain. This will limit what you can grow because not everything does well in your local climate. Another issue is most unused land is highly acidic and nutrient poor. This will require large amounts of lime and fertilizer. This is difficult to do over a short period of time even with supplies readily available.

It could be months before you can plant your crops and if the plants grow it will be months before you can harvest. You will need enough food stored to last anywhere from a few months to a year. You may need more time if you haven't cleared land. Even if you have a bumper crop you will need to understand how to store the harvest.

If you are in an area with few people you can hunt and eat any available animal. The hungrier you get the less cute animals are. Hunting requires skills and is difficult even for the veteran hunter. Keep the ammo for defense which means you need a bow and trapping skills.  Once you have the animal, you have to learn how to process it and store the meat. 

Meal kits are a great supplement. I use them all the time when I go hunting. A lot of the newer kits are freeze dried and taste better than the average MRE. These kits generate trash and will require some kind of preparation.  It could be just boiling water or a heat source. This will be a problem in a time when fresh water and heating is in short supply.

Should you buy a 3 month supply with a 25 year shelf life? Sure. These type of food supplies can provide a good supplement in the case of a short term emergency. If the economy crashes some foods might become unavailable or too expensive. A storm might take out your electricity and food spoils. You can be the one who waits out the rush to the grocery store. If you buy a kit then prepare some of the meals so you're familiar with the method and taste.

Guns

You should have guns and know how to use them. You can never have enough ammunition. A gun will only be good for defense of your supplies from thieves or large animals.

Guns are reliable tools but ammunition is a limited resource.  The components are hard to obtain for most people in normal times. These limitations means that using a gun should be a last resort. A bow and arrow is a much better weapon. Trapping is free. In the worst case, you can run at the animal with a sharp stick.

Medical

You need to take care of yourself.  If you need medicine to survive then just be aware your supply is limited. Living without modern comforts is labor intensive so you better start hitting the gym now.

You should learn first aid and as many survival skills you can for a life without pain killers and anti-biotics. You can get a big supply of anti-biotics but these usually require dry storage at room temperature. Since not all anti-biotics work the same you may find no help from the ton of penicillin you got to cure an infection.

Conclusion

Survival is a lost skill for most people. Information is going to be your best friend.  Check this link for detailed survival information.

At the end of the world, your best bet is to make friends with the local Amish community and hope they take you in. City Boy.